Q3 2026 CBAM certificate price: €82.32, up €7.04 on Q2

The CBAM certificate price for goods imported in the third quarter of 2026 is €82.32 per tonne of CO2e. The European Commission published this official figure on 5 October 2026, and it matches our own calculation from the EEX auction results. That is €7.04, or 9.4%, above the second quarter's official price of €75.28. It is also €6.96 above the first quarter's €75.36.

This rise is large, and we did not expect one of this size. It is still understandable, because the market moved in one direction all quarter.

How we calculate the figure

For goods imported in 2026, the CBAM certificateCBAM certificateCertificate purchased and surrendered by declarants to cover priced embedded emissions. Price from 2027 = weekly average of ETS allowance closing prices; 2026 emissions = quarterly average of the quarter of importation. Non-transferable; ≈ price is the average of the EU ETS auction prices over the quarter of import. We weight each auction by its volume. The same calculation reproduces the Commission's published prices for all three quarters so far to the cent: €75.36 for Q1, €75.28 for Q2 and €82.32 for Q3.

For Q3 2026 the calculation covers all 59 auction sessions from 2 July to 30 September. Together they sold 123.9 million allowances.

What happened in the market

Prices rose in every month of the quarter. They started from the lows of March 2026, when the monthly average was €68.14:

The quarter's lowest auction result was €77.00 on 17 July. The highest was €86.44 on 14 September.

Market reports for September point to these causes:

• Energy companies bought more allowances to hedge, because margins in coal-fired generation widened.
• Gas and power prices rose.
• A major Middle Eastern oil pipeline closed.
• Wind and solar output in central Europe fell.
• The annual compliance deadline came closer.

Trading volumes were low. This suggests that fundamentals, not speculation, drove the move.

What it means for importers

The price changes only the cost of goods imported in July, August and September 2026. You pay nothing in 2026. Certificates for 2026 imports go on sale on 1 February 2027, and you must surrender them by 30 September 2027. There is no quarterly CBAM report.

The effect is easy to state. A company that needs 1,000 certificates for its Q3 2026 imports pays €7,040 more than it would have paid at the Q2 price.

September's average of €84.64 is already above the quarter's average. We do not forecast the fourth quarter. A budget that assumes the Q1 or Q2 level is now out of date.

What to do

Re-price your Q3 2026 import lines at €82.32. This is now the official price, so you can remove any provisional flag from those lines. In CBAM.Pro, the official figure has replaced the calculated one, and the quarter is no longer marked not final yet.

Stuck on this in your own import data? Write to us and we will look at it with you.

This article explains a price and a rule. It is not legal, tax or customs advice.